THURSDAY MARKET UPDATE

The Fed raised rates yesterday and the market spent one day hating it, then changed its mind.

One more thing from yesterday. A unanimous Fed raised rates while the White House was publicly demanding cuts. In November, the people who write the rules around retirement accounts go on a ballot.

-Nathan Reed

GOLD ROSE 2.4% ON A RATE HIKE

Gold jumped 2.37% to around $4,365 an ounce — the day after the Fed raised rates. That reads backwards until you check what else moved. Brent fell 2.51% on word that Saudi Arabia can restore half the damaged pipeline within days.

Yesterday I said to watch two things after two o'clock: the long end, and the vote. Both came in. The 10-year fell back under 5%, and the vote was unanimous — from a committee that split 9-3 in July. Silver, meanwhile, went nowhere. On the one day gold gained 2.4%, the metal that usually amplifies it sat still.

That unanimity is the line that matters. One voice on inflation takes the "Fed blinks" scenario off the table for now. Gold rallied anyway — because the inflation it exists to hedge started easing the same morning.

AMAZON JUST ORDERED $8 BILLION OF GENERATORS

Generac surged more than 34% before the bell after signing a procurement agreement with Amazon worth up to $8 billion. The first deliveries run about $2.4 billion across 2027 and 2028. The product is backup power for data centres.

This is the artificial-intelligence story leaving the technology sector. Amazon isn't buying chips here. It's buying generators from a company most people know for the box that keeps the lights on at home. Warsh handed over the matching line on Wednesday, blaming the surge in bond yields partly on competition for capital from a wave of capital spending. That's a Fed chair describing the buildout crowding everything else out of the market for money — and when it starts needing generators, transformers and concrete, that crowding stops being financial and turns physical.

What to watch:

"The Fed hiked and the long end fell. That is not a market applauding clarity. It's a market pricing a slowdown"

GENERAC, AMAZON, J.B. HUNT

Generac  $GNRC ( ▲ 20.86% ) — the standby-generator maker signed an agreement with Amazon worth up to $8 billion for data-centre backup power.

Amazon  $AMZN ( ▲ 1.5% ) — rose with Microsoft and Alphabet, and is the buyer on that generator deal.

J.B. Hunt  $JBHT ( ▲ 1.24% ) — the trucking bellwether warned on earnings, blaming rising operating costs. That's $6 diesel reaching an income statement.

Boeing  $BA ( ▼ 0.77% ) — fell Wednesday on 737 MAX production delays and renewed strike concerns.

For real-time data, I recommend monitoring Finviz.

HOUSING | Lennar cut its 2026 delivery target for a second time, with quarterly profit down 52%.

OIL | Saudi Arabia says it can restore about half the damaged pipeline's capacity within days.

JAPAN | Japan's central bank decides tomorrow, closing a week of three major tightenings.

RETAIL | Nike slipped to a 12-year low as its turnaround keeps stalling.

MORTGAGES | Builders are buying down mortgage rates — Lennar's incentives are running near 12% of price.

Japan decides tomorrow. Three central banks, one week, and nobody has asked the bond market how it feels about that.

Nathan Reed | Profits & Insights