MONDAY MARKET UPDATE

Good morning. Three of the biggest spenders in technology went looking for money this morning. All three at once.

— Nathan Reed

Gold & Macro

THE FED MEETS SIX DAYS BEFORE THE MIDTERMS

Gold is back at $4,022.20, up 0.71%, after closing below $4,000 on Friday for the first time since July. Silver sits at $53.67, still the weaker of the two. The dollar is firmer and yields are holding near 5%, which normally pushes gold down, so today looks like bargain-hunting rather than a fresh rush to safety.

Wednesday's decision lands six days before the midterms. The Fed has done that once since 1990. Ninety-four of a hundred economists expect no change this week, and all hundred expect an increase in December.

One honest note on the metals. Gold's monthly loss improved from 5.9% to 2.3% between Friday and today, and silver's from 15.5% to 11.5%. Neither metal rallied — the thirty-day window simply rolled past the worst days, which is worth knowing before anyone calls it a recovery.

The Trade

THREE AI GIANTS ASKED FOR MONEY THIS MORNING

Meta launched a plan to raise up to $95 billion in equity, starting with a tranche near $35 billion. SpaceX closed $40 billion of debt to lease AI chips. Anthropic filed to list on Nasdaq. All on the same morning.

The most revealing line of the day wasn't in a research note. It was in Meta's own filing: raise now, before the other giants absorb the money that's available. A company worth trillions is telling its shareholders that capital has become something it needs to grab first.

Then look at who's buying. Meta's own chip suppliers have indicated interest in about $5 billion of the deal. When suppliers help fund the stock sale that pays for purchases from them, that's a circle, and it deserves more attention than the headline number. Those same names are roughly a third of the S&P 500 — you own this either way.

What to watch

Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday, Amazon later in the week, and capital spending guidance is the number that matters. Then whether Meta's first tranche has to price at a discount — the cleanest read on how deep the pool really is.

Heat Check

Nathan's Take

"A company worth trillions just told shareholders to hand over money before the other giants take it. That isn't confidence. That's a queue."

Names to Know

META, TESLA, MODERNA

Meta Platforms $META (▼ 1.7%) — slipped on the equity raise, four days after a 7% drop on earnings.

Tesla $TSLA (▲ 6%) — upgraded at Barclays with a $450 target, citing a possible combination with SpaceX.

Moderna $MRNA (▼ 7%) — investors sold into Phase 3 results for its personalised cancer vaccine partnered with Merck.

Fair Isaac $FICO (▼ 8.6%) — the credit-scoring firm fell on downgrades over its new pricing strategy.

Range Resources $RRC (▲ 16%) — EQT agreed to acquire the Appalachian gas producer in an all-stock deal.

Moves are intraday and will shift before the close. For real-time data, I recommend monitoring Finviz.

The Macro Edge

🛢️  Brent slipped below $115 after President Trump said there would be no strike on Iran today and Qatari mediators travelled to Tehran.

⚡  Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities continued through the weekend regardless.

🔌  Smaller AI cloud providers fell after Elon Musk said many of them could fail.

₿  Bitcoin slid to around $80,300, its weakest since July, as risk appetite narrowed to large-cap technology.

💵  The dollar index firmed to 101.99, adding to the pressure on metals.

Three giants went to the window on the same morning. Somebody is going to be last in line.

Nathan Reed  |  Profits & Insights