MONDAY MARKET UPDATE

Gold touched $4,700 this morning. That's not a typo. December futures traded at $4,713 before the bell. China is acquiring “far more gold” than officially reported. Bessent is announcing the biggest sanctions package in US history this afternoon. Nvidia reports Wednesday. Warsh speaks Friday. This is the week.

-Nathan Reed

CHINA IS BUYING MORE GOLD THAN IT ADMITS. $4,700 SAYS SO

Gold futures hit $4,713 this morning. Spot gold is at $4,646. China is acquiring “far more gold” than officially reported, according to Benzinga, fulfilling Bessent's own 2023 prediction of a gold-backed renminbi. The People's Bank of China reported 20 tonnes in July. The real number is likely multiples higher. When the world's second-largest economy is stealth-buying gold while the first-largest economy is printing money to buy its own bonds, the metal doesn't need a thesis. It has reality.

The dollar is at multi-month lows. The euro broke 1.17 for the first time since May. September hike odds are at 36% — down from 67% four weeks ago. And today Bessent announces “the greatest financial offensive ever marshalled” against Iran. If those sanctions actually cut Iranian oil from global markets, oil goes back above $100, inflation reignites, and the disinflation thesis that killed the hike dies too. Gold benefits either way: sanctions work → oil spikes → inflation hedge. Sanctions fail → dollar credibility erodes → debasement trade. The metal is hedging both outcomes simultaneously.

Wednesday brings July PCE — the last inflation read before Jackson Hole. If PCE cools, Warsh has cover to stay patient. If it's hot, every word of his Friday speech gets scrutinized for hawkish signals. Gold at $4,700 is pricing a patient Fed. Any deviation from that script could trigger a $200 reversal.

NVIDIA WEDNESDAY. THE AI REFERENDUM ARRIVES

Nvidia reports fiscal Q2 after Wednesday's close. Bloomberg called it “the closest thing the AI trade has to a quarterly referendum”. The top five hyperscalers are expected to nearly double capex in 2026 to exceed $1 trillion in 2027. The question isn't whether Nvidia beats. It always beats. The question is whether the market rewards the beat or punishes the capex number.

The semiconductor ETF fell 4% last week. Momentum stocks dropped 4%. The Magnificent Seven were down over 1%. Tech is already in a mini-correction heading into the most important report of the quarter. If Jensen Huang's Rubin chip timeline is intact and guidance exceeds expectations, the S&P has a path to 8,000 by year-end. If the China relationship deteriorates or capex guidance spooks investors, the rotation away from tech and into gold, energy, and defensives accelerates.

What to watch:

“China is buying more gold than it reports. The Treasury is buying its own bonds. The Fed is threatening to hike into a contracting labor market. And Nvidia is about to tell you whether $489 billion in AI debt is justified. Three institutions contradicting each other. One metal ignoring all of them. That's your answer”

PDD HOLDINGS, SALESFORCE, CROWDSTRIKE

PDD Holdings  $PDD ( ▼ 1.84% ) — Chinese e-commerce giant; global consumer demand barometer; post-tariff China consumer health check.

Salesforce  $CRM ( ▲ 0.42% ) — enterprise AI adoption gauge; if AI spending is showing up in CRM revenue, the Nvidia thesis holds.

CrowdStrike  $CRWD ( ▼ 0.82% ) — cybersecurity in a war economy; government contracts + AI security; the defense tech play.

Dick's Sporting Goods  $DKS ( ▼ 0.42% ) — discretionary consumer health; after Walmart's 9% crash, every consumer name is under the microscope.

Marvell Technology  $MRVL ( ▼ 3.21% ) — AI chip infrastructure; the Nvidia follow-through read; reports Thursday.

For real-time data, I recommend monitoring Finviz.

GOLD | Gold futures: $4,713 — December contract hit pre-market high; spot at $4,646; up 14% in August; fifth consecutive weekly gain.

CHINA | China stealth-buying gold — Benzinga: acquiring “far more gold” than reported; fulfilling Bessent's 2023 gold-backed renminbi prediction.

RATES | 30Y yield: 5.27% — highest in nearly two decades; AI hyperscalers flooding credit markets with $489B in bond offerings; draining sovereign debt liquidity.

TRADE | US-Canada trade talks collapsed — reciprocal tariff threats escalating; 50% tariffs imposed on Canadian goods; loonie at 3-month high regardless.

CRYPTO | Bitcoin: $78,335 — best week since 2024 (+22%); XRP +40%; CLARITY Act advancing; crypto rallying alongside gold for the first time this year.

Bessent sanctions today. Consumer confidence tomorrow. PCE + Nvidia Wednesday. GDP Thursday. Warsh Friday. Gold at $4,700. Five days. One direction. Stay sharp.

Nathan Reed | Profits & Insights